All fear the Overgoat!
| Spoiler warning! This page contains details about Fallen London Actions. |
Unlocked with 
Watchful 100
Card drawn in 
Fallen London
Occurs with Standard Frequency
Options:
Learn of the Overgoat
- Spoiler
Challenge information
Broad,
Watchful 110 || 76 - very chancy (41%) || 94 - chancy (51%) || 112 - modest (61%) || 131 - very modest (71%) || 149 - low-risk (81%) || 167 - straightforward (91%) || 184 - straightforward (100%)Success
A double handful of shrill legends
Watchful is increasing…
You've gained ( Base Watchful/10) x Appalling Secret (Rounded down)
You've gained 1 x Tale of Terror!!
Failure
A bleak and flickering silence
- Watchful is increasing…
Nightmares is increasing… (+1 CP)
Ask the Goat's opinion
- Spoiler Unlocked with
Caprine Authority:
Challenge information
Broad,
Watchful 200 || 137 - very chancy (41%) || 170 - chancy (51%) || 204 - modest (61%) || 237 - very modest (71%) || 270 - low-risk (81%) || 304 - straightforward (91%) || 334 - straightforward (100%)Success
bbbbbRRRRRAAARRRRGH!
- Watchful is increasing…
You've gained 1 x Aeolian Scream
Failure
Grraaaghhhh?
- Watchful is increasing…
You've gained 10 x Maniac's Prayer
Use the Goat's... unique talents
- Spoiler Action Cost: 8
Unlocked with Caprine Authority:
Challenge information
Broad,
Watchful 300 || 205 - very chancy (41%) || 255 - chancy (51%) || 305 - modest (61%) || 355 - very modest (71%) || 405 - low-risk (81%) || 455 - straightforward (91%) || 500 - straightforward (100%)Success
The Goat returns
- Watchful is increasing…
You've gained 1 x Storm-Threnody
You've gained 1 x Bazaar Permit
Failure
The Overgoat is displeased
- Watchful is increasing…
- You've gained 1 x Aeolian Scream
Revenue Analysis
^The following assumes that the player is using a
Sudden Insight to bolster chances of success, as this will always be more efficient than not using one given the difficulty of the challenge.
End-game players may be expected to have a Watchful of 267 to 345, depending on their Destiny, Profession, Ambition, Übergoat ownership, and whether they have overcapped their Watchful. Including the Second Chance re-roll, this means the chances of success range from 77.9% (for a raw 53% chance to succeed) to 90.4% (for a 69% chance). The expected profits from success accordingly range between 19.48 and 22.6 E. On failure, players receive 2.5E, and the expected profit from failure ranges between .55 E and .24 E. Thus, the overall profit for this action is 20.03 to 22.84 E. If the player holds onto their Storm-Threnodies to sell them at the Rat Market (available three weeks out of every twelve), overall profit increases to 25.87 E to 29.62 E, at the cost of an additional action.
To calculate EPA, the action to obtain the Second Chance must be considered. The most efficient methods of obtaining second chances are Give a Gift! and the Church/Great Game conflict card, both of which give 1 of each Advantage. If players have access to the Cave of the Nadir, they may use the leftover Advantages to a profitable end; if they do not (for example because they have overcapped stats and wish to preserve them), the other Advantages are not useful. Thus, the cost of a Sudden Insight may be either 1/4 of an action or 1 full action.
Accordingly, players with access to the Nadir and Rat Market have an overall EPA expectation of 2.79 to 3.20; players who do not, who must count obtaining the Insight as a full separate action and sell the Storm-Threnody for its normal price, have an overall EPA of 2.23 to 2.54. In either case, this is lower EPA than Learn of the Overgoat, on the same card.
SEVEN INTO SEVEN INTO SEVEN
- Spoiler Action Cost: 5
Unlocked with
7 x Übergoat, 
1 x Impossible Theorem
Success
No reward narrative information available for Fate-locked actions.
- Nightmares is increasing… (+1 CP)
Wiki note: The result text points you elsewhere.
^
