From Fallen London Wiki

Honestly learning when a strategy isn't consistent is an important skill to develop here imo. If I lose the first round I'm out immediately and going back to drafting accomplices. If I lose the second I'll play one more to see which of the win or the loss was the fluke.

cod specifically is a terrible choice to be your only prep generator imo because she has only one the card. her big benefit is that she gets out of your way quickly.

(ftr, this is unrelated, but chatgpt is not very good at math. it happened to be pretty close to correct this time [its 23.6%, calculated using a bernoulli distribution] but don't trust it)