Counterlight loss

In my experience, there hasn't been any randomness in the Counterlight loss. In my 3 runs, it has always been the same, based only on the current level of Towards a Violant Sky:

No Counterlight loss at Violant Sky 1 -5 Counterlight at Violant Sky 2-8 (I haven't progressed past level 9 yet...) This means that I had 100% chance to go from level 1 to 2 and from level 2 to 3, and then my chance to progress dropped regularly by 5% on each level, down to 65% for the check from level 9 to 10 Has anyone else observed a different progression?