Editing Noman Tattoo (Guide)

{{GuideFor|Pages=The Face in the Snow tattoo#A Private Tattoo of your Noman, Inscribed in Gant#An Incident: Get a private tattoo of your noman#Noman}}{{Audience|EarlyPoSI|Evergreen=yes}}
{{#vardefine: nomanYear|{{#ifexpr:{{CURRENTMONTH1}}<3|{{#expr:{{CURRENTYEAR}}-1}}|{{CURRENTYEAR}}}}}}
Acquiring [[The Face in the Snow tattoo]], {{IL|A Private Tattoo of your Noman, Inscribed in Gant}} or {{IL|Memories of a Doubled Spring}} is a difficult endeavour, requiring a great deal of preparation, timing, and some luck. This guide is meant to help with the first two, and mitigate the need for the last.

==Outline==
The creation of a {{IL|Noman}} can take place at any point from the opening of [[Penstock's Wicket]] (on January 5th, when you play the twelfth [[Day 12: Mr Sacks, at its limits|visit from Mr Sacks]]) until when it closes; in 2022, this happened on the 29th. The Noman begins with 100 {{IL|Noman's Friend}}, some of which is taken away each time [[Time, the Healer]] arrives - the exact amount depending on the length of time since the Wicket opened and on random chance. Once {{IL|Noman's Friend}} reaches zero, the Noman dies, so in order to get the tattoo one must gain enough {{IL|Noman's Friend}} to keep it alive until the second week of [[Feast of the Rose (Guide)|the Feast of the Rose]]. In recent years, the Feast has begun on a non-Friday weekday between the 4th and the 6th; as such, the finishline is likely to occur on {{#vardefineecho: finish|{{#switch:{{#expr:{{#time: w|6 Feb {{#expr:{{#var:nomanYear}}+1}} }} }} |0 = 14 |1 = 13 |2 = 13 |3 = 13 |4 = 13 |5 = 12 |6 = 11 }}}}{{DaySuffix|{{#var: finish}}}} February {{#expr:{{#var:nomanYear}}+1}}.

The best way of getting a large amount of {{IL|Noman's Friend}} is to acquire {{IL|Putting the Pieces Together: the Taste of Lacre}} by [[Warm your Tears of the Bazaar|warming Vials of Tears of the Bazaar]]; this has a 4 in 5 chance of giving one {{IL|Putting the Pieces Together: the Taste of Lacre|Appearance=PtPT:tToL}}, and a 1 in 5 chance of giving 2 {{IL|Putting the Pieces Together: the Taste of Lacre|Appearance=PtPT:tToL}} and consuming the Vial. If you have a point of {{IL|Putting the Pieces Together: the Taste of Lacre|Appearance=PtPT:tToL}}, this will allow you to get up to 11-12 {{IL|Putting the Pieces Together: the Taste of Lacre|Appearance=PtPT:tToL}} (depending on luck), with each vial producing 6 on average; then using the [[Noman's Progress|Noman card]] this can be converted to 33-36 {{IL|Noman's Friend}}. If you [[Wines Grinding (Guide)#Vial of Tears of the Bazaar|know how to grind Vials]], then the tricky part becomes getting that first point of {{IL|Putting the Pieces Together: the Taste of Lacre|Appearance=PtPT:tToL}}, as by this point both the Days of Mr Sacks and Advent will be over. Thus, this method may only be used as many times as you have {{IL|Unusual Pail of So-Called Snow|Appearance=Unusual Pails of So-Called Snow}}.

This places a bit of a time constraint on feeding the Noman, as Pails usually melt with the [[Time, the Healer]] immediately after the Wicket closes; as such, depending on your exact TtH day and the amount of {{IL|Noman's Friend}} you need to acquire, it may be wise to create a Noman sooner than is strictly optimal in order to ensure you get all the converting done. You'll have about a week to draw an [[Abundant Frequency]] card at most five times.<ref>As seen in the next section, at most six conversions of ToL into {{IL|Noman's Friend}} are needed, so you need to do five conversions and then observe the last pail before the deadline.</ref>

==Noman Tattoo==
===Initial Costs===
The strategy presented here relies on purchasing a Noman at its most expensive, which is 15 {{IL|Putting the Pieces Together: the Taste of Lacre|Appearance=ToL}}. You can fund most of this with the free Pails and Taste of Lacre from Advent, Snowbound, and the 12 Days of Mr Sacks but any shortages (either from picking different options during the Days of Mr Sacks, getting Incarnadine Robes from your Snowbound, or just having already spent it) will have to be replaced with Tears of the Bazaar or purchased Pails. Here are a few ways to get to 15, although there are many other combinations:
====Planned in Advance==== 
'''Uses 7 Pails, 4 uncapped ToL gains; requires Dangerous 334 (or close to it)'''
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed mw-collapsible-content">
*0->3: Use 1 x Pail to Examine through a Monocle
* 3->4: Gain 1 ToL from the Advent calendar
* 4->5: Use 1 x Pail to  Dip a Soul
*5->8: Use 1 x Pail to Examine through a Monocle
*8->11: Gain 3 ToL from the 12 Days of Sacksmas (Days 2, 5, 8)
*11->15: Use 4 x Pails to Feed it to a Boar. Saving a Mood Card may help you get 100% on the Dangerous challenge.
</div>
====Planned but undangerous====
'''Uses 3 Pails, 4 uncapped ToL gains, and 1-2 Tears'''
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed mw-collapsible-content">
*0->3: Use 1 x Pail to Examine through a Monocle
* 3->4: Use 1 x Pail to  Dip a Soul
*4->7: Use 1 x Pail to Examine through a Monocle
*7->11: Use 1 Tear, or 2 if you're unlucky.
*11->12: Gain 1 ToL from the Advent Calendar
* 12->15: Gain 3 ToL from the 12 Days of Sacksmas (Days 2, 5, 8)
</div>
====Saving Pails====
'''Uses 1 Pail, 4 uncapped ToL gains, 1-4 Tears'''
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed mw-collapsible-content">
*0->3: Use 1 x Pail to Examine through a Monocle
*3->11: Use 1-4 Tears (average of 1.33)
*11->12: Gain 1 ToL from the Advent Calendar
* 12->15: Gain 3 ToL from the 12 Days of Sacksmas (Days 2, 5, 8)
</div>
====Past Sacks, No Tears ====
'''Uses 11 Pails; requires Dangerous 334 (or close to it)'''
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed mw-collapsible-content">
*0->3: Use 1 x Pail to Examine through a Monocle
*3->5: Use 2 x Pail to Dip a Soul
*5->8: Use 1 x Pail to Examine through a Monocle
*8->15: Use 7 x Pail to Feed it to a Boar. Saving a Mood Card may help you get 100% on the Dangerous challenge.
</div>
====Past Sacks, Yes Tears====
'''Uses 6+ Pails, 1-2 Tears'''
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed mw-collapsible-content">
*0->6: Use 2 x Pail to Examine through a Monocle
*6->11: Use 1-2 Tears. May get you to 12, saving you a Pail in the next step.
*11->15: Use 4 x Pail (or more, based on your Dangerous and luck) to Feed it to a Boar
</div>

===Step by Step===
1. Find your Noman creation day according to the table below. If you are nervous about drawing [[Noman's Progress]] enough times between your creation day and January 29, you may wish to amass more {{IL|Unusual Pail of So-Called Snow}} and {{IL|Vial of Tears of the Bazaar}} than required and do your creation a week earlier.

2. On Noman creation day after your [[Time, the Healer]] arrives, make your Noman at [[The Noman]], giving {{IL|Noman's Friend|100 x}}.

3. If you have no {{IL|Putting the Pieces Together: the Taste of Lacre}}, use {{IL|Unusual Pail of So-Called Snow}} and [[Examine it through your Semiotic Monocle]] to raise Taste of Lacre (ToL) to 3.

4. Once you have any ToL, [[Warm your Tears of the Bazaar]] until you have 11 ToL. It is possible, but less likely, to end up with 12 ToL if a Vial is used up when warming at 10 ToL. Vials are used up 20% of the time, so you should use the tables below to calculate how many you need to be safe if you're very unlucky.

5. Once you have maxed out your Tear-warming ToL, convert to {{IL|Noman's Friend| (3*[[Putting the Pieces Together: the Taste of Lacre|Taste of Lacre]]) x}} via [["Help me. I beg you."]] This is on an [[Abundant Frequency]] opportunity card. Because you will be turning in 11-12 Taste of Lacre, you will gain 33-36 Noman's Friend (NF).

6. Repeat steps 3-5 until you have one more NF than the maximum NF loss calculated in the below table, or whatever higher number if you aimed for a higher target.

7. Watch as your NF drops week to week, until the second week of [[Feast of the Rose (Guide)]]. Then get [[An Incident: Get a private tattoo of your noman]] and you're done!

===The Numbers===
{{GuideNeedsWork|Noman melt rates have been changed this year, and the below information can only be used as a rough guideline. The difficulties of these achievement are apparently similar, but caution and over-preparedness are advised!}}
Each time [[Time, the Healer]] arrives, you will lose between (1.75 × D)+3 and (1.75 × D)+36 {{IL|Noman's Friend}}, where D is the number of days since January 5th - so for example, if your TtH came on the 6th (and you'd already made a Noman) you'd lose between 5 and 38 {{IL|Noman's Friend}}. Meanwhile, the Taste of Lacre cost for making a Noman only increases by ~0.8 per day, to a maximum of 15 (reached on the 17th), so generally it's a good idea to wait until after the last of your [[Time, the Healer]]s which falls in the period the Wicket is open to make your Noman.

The numbers that follow are <u>estimates</u> for '''Christmas {{#var: nomanYear}}''', assuming that the Wicket closes on the last Friday of January (the {{#time: j|last friday of January {{#expr:{{#var: nomanYear}}+1}}}}{{DaySuffix|{{#time: j|last friday of January {{#expr:{{#var: nomanYear}}+1}}}}}}), the Feast opens on the first Thursday of February (the {{#time: j|first Thursday of February {{#ifexpr:{{#time: n|now}} > 2| {{#expr:{{CURRENTYEAR}}+1}}| {{CURRENTYEAR}} }} }}{{DaySuffix|{{#time: j|first Thursday of February {{#ifexpr:{{#time: n|now}} > 2| {{#expr:{{CURRENTYEAR}}+1}}| {{CURRENTYEAR}} }} }}}}) and the [[Time, the Healer#Noman's Friend Loss|Noman's Friend loss]] scales as it did last year. ''These assumptions may not hold true, and adding a healthy margin for error on top may be wise.''

{{#lsth:Noman Tattoo (Guide)/Tables|current}}

Note that the worst-case scenario most years is a loss of 276 {{IL|Noman's Friend}}; as such, you need only acquire an extra 176, which may be done with 6 Pails and an average of 7 vials - even if you're incredibly unlucky, you'll need at most 21 vials.<ref>The method here is to examine each pail with a {{IL|Semiotic Monocle}}, gaining 3 ToL, then warm the Tears until you reach 10 or 11.</ref> On years when the Feast begins particularly early, depending on your Time, the Healer day, you may need no additional vials at all.

Fortunately, it is possible to reach ToL 15 with five pails left over even if you started the season with no ToL, so you'll only need to purchase a single pail from the urchins. You gain 1 from Advent, then use a pail with [[Examine it through your Semiotic Monocle]] to get to 4, then [[Warm your Tears of the Bazaar]] to get to 11 (uses on average another 1.17 Vials and at most 4), then use the Mr Sacks cards to gain 4 ToL and a Pail (requires that you [[Mr Sacks! Take this dream of skies untainted!|be a Celestial]] or [[The door of its crimson carriage swings open|a Notary or Doctor]]). See [[Christmas (Guide)]] and [[12 Days of Mr Sacks (Guide)]] for more information on this.

====Future Years====
{{#lsth:Noman Tattoo (Guide)/Tables|next}}

{{#lsth:Noman Tattoo (Guide)/Tables|after next}}

=== Pre-Season Preparations ===
The amount of preparation you need to do depends heavily on what day of the week your [[Time, the Healer]] falls on and how lucky you feel, but is at absolute most grinding {{IL|Vial of Tears of the Bazaar|x 21}}. The most reliable, though not necessarily most action-efficient, way to do this will usually be to grind {{IL|Fourth-City Echo|x 25}} per desired Vial and wait for a Vials week at [[The Rat Market (Guide)]].

==Memories of a Doubled Spring==

The newer noman-survival-based-vanity, Memories of a Doubled Spring, is significantly more difficult than the tattoo. The numbers that follow assume that the Wicket closes on the 29th, Whitsun starts on the second Monday of May (or the second Thursday of May, if the first is a Monday). These assumptions may not hold true, and it would be wise to leave a margin for error.

Due to the large number of conversions needed, it is recommended to make your noman as early as possible - rather than as late as possible as you would with the noman tattoo - so that you have enough time for the required card draws.

===The Numbers===
{{#lsth:Noman Tattoo (Guide)/Tables|spring}}

Note that, although anything less than these safe values is theoretically capable of ending in failure, in practice the chances of having that many vials get used up first time are vanishingly small. Below is a table of maximum losses and corresponding vial percentiles - that is, the amount of vials you would need to have a given percentage chance of success.
{| class="wikitable"
![[Noman's Friend]] Loss
!95%
!99%
!99.5%
!99.9%
!99.99%
|-
|2410
|106
|111
|113
|117
|122
|-
|2438
|108
|113
|115
|119
|123
|-
|2466
|109
|114
|116
|120
|125
|-
|2546
|112
|118
|119
|123
|128
|-
|2576
|114
|119
|121
|125
|130
|-
|2605
|115
|120
|122
|126
|131
|-
|2635
|116
|122
|123
|128
|132
|-
|2665
|118
|123
|125
|129
|134
|-
|2695
|119
|124
|126
|130
|135
|-
|2724
|120
|126
|128
|132
|137
|-
|2806
|124
|129
|131
|135
|140
|}

====Future Years====
{{#lsth:Noman Tattoo (Guide)/Tables|spring next}}

{{#lsth:Noman Tattoo (Guide)/Tables|spring after next}}

<references />
[[Category:Guides]]