Editing Fidgeting Writer (Guide)

{{Audience|EarlyPoSI}}[[Has icon::File:Black.png|right]]
{{ActivitySummary
|Activity=Fidgeting Writer
|Length=Semi-Fixed
|Starting Actions=0
|Progress Actions=1-7
|Ending Actions={{Tooltip|0-1|1 if cashing out before the end.}}
|Progress Details=Roll double or nothing on output items.
|Output Items=*{{IL|Extraordinary Implication}}
*{{IL|Volume of Collated Research}}
*{{IL|Brass Ring}}
*{{IL|Antique Mystery}}
*{{IL|Night-Whisper}}
*{{IL|Searing Enigma}}
*{{IL|Primaeval Hint}}
*{{IL|Bazaar Permit}}
*{{IL|Comprehensive Bribe}}
*{{IL|Coruscating Soul}}
|Raw EPA = 2.22
|EPA Notes = Ratket at Night Whisper.
|Conversion=Yes
|Starting Items=*{{IL|Tale of Terror!!|1 x}}
|Input Items=*{{IL|Vision of the Surface}}
*{{IL|Correspondence Plaque}}
*{{IL|Brilliant Soul}}
*{{IL|An Identity Uncovered!}}
*{{IL|Extraordinary Implication}}
*{{IL|Mourning Candle}}
}}
==General==
The story started by using a {{IL|Tale of Terror!!}} in your inventory and reading about the Mottled Man. It could be compared to a Double or Nothing game, where you have to risk everything you've wagered so far and a little more on a luck chance.

To finish the story you need a boosted {{IL|Watchful}} of 120, but everyone can start it.

See [[:Category:Fidgeting Writer]] for all the pages connected with this storyline.

{{Clear}}
==Actions==
{| border="1" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1" style="text-align: left" class="article-table"
|-
! Base item
! Safe choice
! Safe choice rewards
! Continue choice
! Required items
! Required items found via
! Odds to progress
! Odds from start to this stage
|-
|{{IL|Tale of Terror!!|Size=40px}}
|||
|[[There's something familiar about this tale...]]
|
|[[Steal Tales of Terror from a noted author]]
|70%
|
|-
|{{IL|Sense of Déjà Vu|Size=40px}}
|[[Put the thought aside]]
|{{IL|Extraordinary Implication}}
|[[Track down the Fidgeting Writer]]
|{{IL|Vision of the Surface}}
|Convert [[Correspondence Plaque]]
|70%
|70%
|-
|{{IL|Glimpse of Something Larger|Size=40px}}
|[[Publish a paper on the subject and think no more about it]]
|{{IL|Volume of Collated Research|2 x}}
|[[Cancel your appointments and investigate the ideogram]]
|{{IL|Correspondence Plaque|2 x}}
|Convert [[Journal of Infamy]] via [[Steal Journals of Infamy from an Iniquitous Solicitor]]
|70%
|49%
|-
|{{IL|Deal with a Devil|Size=40px}}
|[[Tell him all you know and abandon your research]]
|{{IL|Brass Ring}}
|[[Make a counter-offer.]]
|{{IL|Brilliant Soul|2 x}}
|[[Steal Brilliant Souls en route to Hookman House]]
|60%
|34.3%
|-
|{{IL|Room Number at the Royal Beth|Size=40px}}
|[[Give him honey and a pen]]
|{{IL|Antique Mystery|2 x}}
|[[Visit him regularly and ask the Manager about his stay]]
|{{IL|An Identity Uncovered!}}
|Convert [[Vision of the Surface]] to [[Mystery of the Elder Continent]] to [[Scrap of Incendiary Gossip]]
|50%
|20.58%
|-
|{{IL|Last Hope of a Fidgeting Writer|Size=40px}}
|[[Burn his works. Break his pen. Escort him to the Royal Beth]]
|{{IL|Night-Whisper}}
|[[Make him dream and see what he sees]]
|{{IL|Extraordinary Implication}}
|[[Steal Tales of Terror from a noted author|Steal Tales of Terror]] or [[Steal Journals of Infamy from an Iniquitous Solicitor|Journals of Infamy]] and convert
|50%
|10.29%
|-
|{{IL|Lens of Black Glass|Size=40px}}
|[[Smash it]]
|{{TableList|{{IL|Searing Enigma}}|{{IL|Primaeval Hint}}|{{IL|Bazaar Permit}}|{{IL|Comprehensive Bribe}}}}
|[[Look through the Lens]]
|{{IL|Mourning Candle}}
|[[A Boxful of Intrigue]]
|50%
|5.145%
|-
|{{IL|Coruscating Soul}}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|2.5725%
|}
==Expected Costs==
{| class="article-table"
!Goal
!Expected number of actions
!Expected cost
!Expected cost in echoes
!Expected gain in echoes per action<ref name="upconverting">upconverting meaning that every resource needed is created by buying basic resources and upconverting them to the desired resource, and the cost in both echoes and actions is added to the calculation. For tier 4 resources where favours are required, they were counted as one action, except for {{IL|Connected: Benthic}} or {{IL|Connected: Summerset}} as +5CP of each can be collected with one action of [[A colleague with a problem]], which also yields 40 {{IL|Cryptic Clue}}, is counted as costing half an action and giving 0.8 echoes.</ref>
!Expected gain in echoes per action including upconverting<ref name="upconverting" />
|-
|{{IL|Extraordinary Implication}}
|2.43
|{{IL|Tale of Terror!!|1.43|Appearance=}}
|0.71
|0.74
|0.48
|-
|{{IL|Volume of Collated Research|2}}
|4.47
|{{TableList|{{IL|Tale of Terror!!|2.04|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Vision of the Surface|1.43|Appearance=}}}}
|1.73
|0.73
|0.40
|-
|{{IL|Brass Ring}}
|7.38
|{{TableList|{{IL|Tale of Terror!!|2.92|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Vision of the Surface|2.04|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Correspondence Plaque|2.86|Appearance=}}}}
|3.91
|1.16
|0.69
|-
|{{IL|Antique Mystery|2}}
|13.31
|{{TableList|{{IL|Tale of Terror!!|4.86|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Vision of the Surface|3.4|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Correspondence Plaque|4.76|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Brilliant Soul|3.33|Appearance=}}}}
|8.18
|1.26
|0.72
|-
|{{IL|Night-Whisper}}
|27.62
|{{TableList|{{IL|Tale of Terror!!|9.72|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Vision of the Surface|6.8|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Correspondence Plaque|9.58|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Brilliant Soul|6.67|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|An Identity Uncovered!|2|Appearance=}}}}
|21.36
|{{TableList|1.49|2.22 w/ Ratket}}
|0.79
|-
|{{TableList|{{IL|Searing Enigma}}
{{IL|Primaeval Hint}}|
{{IL|Bazaar Permit}}|
{{IL|Comprehensive Bribe}}}}
|56.23
|{{TableList|{{IL|Tale of Terror!!|19.44|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Vision of the Surface|13.6|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Correspondence Plaque|19.05|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Brilliant Soul|13.33|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|An Identity Uncovered!|4|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Extraordinary Implication|2|Appearance=}}}}
|47.71
|1.82
|1.02
|-
|{{IL|Coruscating Soul}}
|113.46
|{{TableList|{{IL|Tale of Terror!!|38.87|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Vision of the Surface|27.21|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Correspondence Plaque|38.1|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Brilliant Soul|26.67|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|An Identity Uncovered!|8|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Extraordinary Implication|4|Appearance=}}|
{{IL|Mourning Candle|2|Appearance=}}}}
|100.42
|1.87
|1.04
|}

==Find the distribution==
{{Fidgeting Writer}}
For a distribution of how many coruscating souls (or other things) you should expect for a number of attempted cycles, a binomial distribution will give a good indication. Find a binomial calculator (like [https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/bin.html this one]) and let n be the amount of attempted cycles, p be the probability of going from the start to the finish (0.025725 for souls), and x be the amount of souls you want to calculate. For souls the expected amount of actions is approx. 2.9 times the amount of cycles, but this will vary slightly depending on the chosen item. The action conversion probably makes this slightly inaccurate, but a good approximation nevertheless. This does not take into account the number of actions needed for accumulating other items.

Below is an example for 35 cycles (~100 actions), showing there's a 60% chance you'll have a soul in 35 cycles.

[[File:Fidgetingwriterdistribution.jpg|500px]]

{{reflist|collapsed=yes}}

{{Clear}}
[[Category:Storyline]]
[[Category:Characters]]
[[Category:Guides]]