Fidgeting Writer (Guide)

The story started by using a Tale of Terror!! in your inventory and reading about the Mottled Man. It could be compared to a Double or Nothing game, where you have to risk everything you've wagered so far and a little more on a luck chance.

To finish the story you need a boosted Watchful of 120, but everyone can start it.

See Category:Fidgeting Writer for all the pages connected with this storyline.

Base item	Safe choice	Safe choice rewards	Continue choice	Required items	Required items found via	Odds to progress	Odds from start to this stage
Tale of Terror!!			There's something familiar about this tale...		Steal Tales of Terror from a noted author	70%
Sense of Déjà Vu	Put the thought aside	Extraordinary Implication	Track down the Fidgeting Writer	Vision of the Surface	Convert Correspondence Plaque	70%	70%
Glimpse of Something Larger	Publish a paper on the subject and think no more about it	2 x Volume of Collated Research	Cancel your appointments and investigate the ideogram	2 x Correspondence Plaque	Convert Journal of Infamy via Steal Journals of Infamy from an Iniquitous Solicitor	70%	49%
Deal with a Devil	Tell him all you know and abandon your research	Brass Ring	Make a counter-offer.	2 x Brilliant Soul	Steal Brilliant Souls en route to Hookman House	60%	34.3%
Room Number at the Royal Beth	Give him honey and a pen	2 x Antique Mystery	Visit him regularly and ask the Manager about his stay	An Identity Uncovered!	Convert Vision of the Surface to Mystery of the Elder Continent to Scrap of Incendiary Gossip	50%	20.58%
Last Hope of a Fidgeting Writer	Burn his works. Break his pen. Escort him to the Royal Beth	Night-Whisper	Make him dream and see what he sees	Extraordinary Implication	Steal Tales of Terror or Journals of Infamy and convert	50%	10.29%
Lens of Black Glass	Smash it	Searing Enigma Primaeval Hint Bazaar Permit Comprehensive Bribe	Look through the Lens	Mourning Candle	A Boxful of Intrigue	50%	5.145%
Coruscating Soul							2.5725%

Goal	Expected number of actions	Expected cost	Expected cost in echos	Expected gain in echos per action	Expected gain in echos per action including upconverting	Median gain in echos per action including upconverting
Extraordinary Implication	2.43	1.43	0.71	0.82	0.58	1
2 Volume of Collated Research	4.47	2.04  1.43	1.73	0.92	0.6	0.875
Brass Ring	7.38	2.92  2.04  2.86	3.91	1.61	1.13	1.12
2 Antique Mystery	13.31	4.86  3.4  4.76  3.33	8.18	2.13	1.53	1.23
Night-Whisper	27.62	9.72  6.8  9.58  6.67  2	21.36	3.25	2.28	1.44
Searing Enigma Primaeval Hint Bazaar Permit Comprehensive Bribe	56.23	19.44  13.6  19.05  13.33  4  2	47.71	4.9	3.61	1.88
Coruscating Soul	113.46	38.87  27.21  38.1  26.67  8  4  2	100.42	6.2	4.66	1.97

Find the distribution

For a distribution of how many coruscating souls (or other things) you should expect for a number of attempted cycles, a binomial distribution will give a good indication. Find a binomial calculator (like this one) and let n be the amount of attempted cycles, p be the probability of going from the start to the finish (0.025725 for souls), and x be the amount of souls you want to calculate. For souls the expected amount of actions is approx. 2.9 times the amount of cycles, but this will vary slightly depending on the chosen item. The action conversion probably makes this slightly inaccurate, but a good approximation nevertheless. This does not take into account the number of actions needed for accumulating other items.

Below is an example for 35 cycles (~100 actions), showing there's a 60% chance you'll have a soul in 35 cycles.