Fidgeting Writer (Guide)
Early PoSI Content 
Fidgeting Writer Summary  

SemiFixedLength Conversion Activity  
Setup  Progress  End  
0 A  17 A  01 A  
Progress
Details 
Roll double or nothing on output items.  
 
Raw EPA  2.22 
General[edit]
The story started by using a Tale of Terror!! in your inventory and reading about the Mottled Man. It could be compared to a Double or Nothing game, where you have to risk everything you've wagered so far and a little more on a luck chance.
To finish the story you need a boosted Watchful of 120, but everyone can start it.
See Category:Fidgeting Writer for all the pages connected with this storyline.
Actions[edit]
Expected Costs[edit]
Goal  Expected number of actions  Expected cost  Expected cost in echoes  Expected gain in echoes per action^{[1]}  Expected gain in echoes per action including upconverting^{[1]} 

Extraordinary Implication  2.43  1.43  0.71  0.74  0.48 
2 Volume of Collated Research  4.47  1.73  0.73  0.40  
Brass Ring  7.38  3.91  1.16  0.69  
2 Antique Mystery  13.31  8.18  1.26  0.72  
NightWhisper  27.62  21.36 

0.79  
56.23  47.71  1.82  1.02  
Coruscating Soul  113.46  100.42  1.87  1.04 
Find the distribution[edit]
Fidgeting Writer  

0.50  Tale of Terror!! 
▾ 70% ▾  0.50: 1 x 
2.50  Sense of Déjà Vu 
▾ 70% ▾  0.50: 1 x 
5.00  Glimpse of Something Larger 
▾ 70% ▾  1.00: 2 x 
12.50  Deal with a Devil 
▾ 60% ▾  1.00: 2 x 
25.00  Room Number at the Royal Beth 
▾ 50% ▾  2.50: 1 x 
62.50  Last Hope of a Fidgeting Writer 
▾ 50% ▾  2.50: 1 x 
150.00  Lens of Black Glass 
▾ 50% ▾  2.50: 1 x 
312.50  Coruscating Soul 
See also: Simulation/Calculator 
For a distribution of how many coruscating souls (or other things) you should expect for a number of attempted cycles, a binomial distribution will give a good indication. Find a binomial calculator (like this one) and let n be the amount of attempted cycles, p be the probability of going from the start to the finish (0.025725 for souls), and x be the amount of souls you want to calculate. For souls the expected amount of actions is approx. 2.9 times the amount of cycles, but this will vary slightly depending on the chosen item. The action conversion probably makes this slightly inaccurate, but a good approximation nevertheless. This does not take into account the number of actions needed for accumulating other items.
Below is an example for 35 cycles (~100 actions), showing there's a 60% chance you'll have a soul in 35 cycles.
 ↑ ^{1.0} ^{1.1} upconverting meaning that every resource needed is created by buying basic resources and upconverting them to the desired resource, and the cost in both echoes and actions is added to the calculation. For tier 4 resources where favours are required, they were counted as one action, except for Connected: Benthic or Connected: Summerset as +5CP of each can be collected with one action of A colleague with a problem, which also yields 40 Cryptic Clue, is counted as costing half an action and giving 0.8 echoes.