Fidgeting Writer (Guide)

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Diamondsmall.png Early PoSI Content
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Fidgeting Writer Summary
Semi-Fixed-Length Conversion Activity
Setup Progress End
0 A 1-7 A 0-1 A
Progress

Details

Roll double or nothing on output items.
Items Inputs/Outputs
Start-up
Inputs
Outputs
Raw EPA 2.22

General[edit]

The story started by using a Tale of Terror!! in your inventory and reading about the Mottled Man. It could be compared to a Double or Nothing game, where you have to risk everything you've wagered so far and a little more on a luck chance.

To finish the story you need a boosted Watchful of 120, but everyone can start it.

See Category:Fidgeting Writer for all the pages connected with this storyline.

Actions[edit]

Base item Safe choice Safe choice rewards Continue choice Required items Required items found via Odds to progress Odds from start to this stage
Tale of Terror!! There's something familiar about this tale... Steal Tales of Terror from a noted author 70%
Sense of Déjà Vu Put the thought aside Extraordinary Implication Track down the Fidgeting Writer Vision of the Surface Convert Correspondence Plaque 70% 70%
Glimpse of Something Larger Publish a paper on the subject and think no more about it 2 x Volume of Collated Research Cancel your appointments and investigate the ideogram 2 x Correspondence Plaque Convert Journal of Infamy via Steal Journals of Infamy from an Iniquitous Solicitor 70% 49%
Deal with a Devil Tell him all you know and abandon your research Brass Ring Make a counter-offer 2 x Brilliant Soul Steal Brilliant Souls en route to Hookman House 60% 34.3%
Room Number at the Royal Beth Give him honey and a pen 2 x Antique Mystery Visit him regularly and ask the Manager about his stay An Identity Uncovered! Convert Vision of the Surface to Mystery of the Elder Continent to Scrap of Incendiary Gossip 50% 20.58%
Last Hope of a Fidgeting Writer Burn his works. Break his pen. Escort him to the Royal Beth Night-Whisper Make him dream and see what he sees Extraordinary Implication Steal Tales of Terror or Journals of Infamy and convert 50% 10.29%
Lens of Black Glass Smash it Look through the Lens Mourning Candle A Boxful of Intrigue 50% 5.145%
Coruscating Soul 2.5725%

Expected Costs[edit]

Goal Expected number of actions Expected cost Expected cost in echoes Expected gain in echoes per action[1] Expected gain in echoes per action including upconverting[1]
Extraordinary Implication 2.43 1.43  0.71 0.74 0.48
2 Volume of Collated Research 4.47
  • 2.04 
  • 1.43 
 1.73 0.73 0.40
Brass Ring 7.38
  • 2.92 
  • 2.04 
  • 2.86 
 3.91 1.16 0.69
2 Antique Mystery 13.31
  • 4.86 
  • 3.4 
  • 4.76 
  • 3.33 
 8.18 1.26 0.72
Night-Whisper 27.62
  • 9.72 
  • 6.8 
  • 9.58 
  • 6.67 
  • 2 
 21.36
  • 1.49
  • 2.22 w/ Ratket
 0.79
56.23
  • 19.44 
  • 13.6 
  • 19.05 
  • 13.33 
  • 4 
  • 2 
 47.71 1.82 1.02
Coruscating Soul 113.46
  • 38.87 
  • 27.21 
  • 38.1 
  • 26.67 
  • 8 
  • 4 
  • 2 
 100.42 1.87 1.04

Find the distribution[edit]

Fidgeting Writer
E0.50 Tale of Terror!!
▾ 70% ▾ E 0.50: 1 x
E2.50 Sense of Déjà Vu
▾ 70% ▾ E 0.50: 1 x
E5.00 Glimpse of
Something Larger
▾ 70% ▾ E 1.00: 2 x
E12.50 Deal with a Devil
▾ 60% ▾ E 1.00: 2 x
E25.00 Room Number
at the Royal Beth
▾ 50% ▾ E 2.50: 1 x
E62.50 Last Hope of
a Fidgeting Writer
▾ 50% ▾ E 2.50: 1 x
E150.00 Lens of Black
Glass
▾ 50% ▾ E 2.50: 1 x
E312.50 Coruscating Soul
See also: Simulation/Calculator

For a distribution of how many coruscating souls (or other things) you should expect for a number of attempted cycles, a binomial distribution will give a good indication. Find a binomial calculator (like this one) and let n be the amount of attempted cycles, p be the probability of going from the start to the finish (0.025725 for souls), and x be the amount of souls you want to calculate. For souls the expected amount of actions is approx. 2.9 times the amount of cycles, but this will vary slightly depending on the chosen item. The action conversion probably makes this slightly inaccurate, but a good approximation nevertheless. This does not take into account the number of actions needed for accumulating other items.

Below is an example for 35 cycles (~100 actions), showing there's a 60% chance you'll have a soul in 35 cycles.

Fidgetingwriterdistribution.jpg

Citations
  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 upconverting meaning that every resource needed is created by buying basic resources and upconverting them to the desired resource, and the cost in both echoes and actions is added to the calculation. For tier 4 resources where favours are required, they were counted as one action, except for Connected: Benthic or Connected: Summerset as +5CP of each can be collected with one action of A colleague with a problem, which also yields 40 Cryptic Clue, is counted as costing half an action and giving 0.8 echoes.
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