Track down a rat of exceptional size and cunning

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Spoiler warning!
This page contains details about Fallen London Actions.
As big as a wild boar, they say...

Game Instructions: You'll need to build up a Running Battle... quality to at least 5 to complete this.

Unlocked with Menace Eradication Contract: Destroy Ferocious Rat 1

Storylet appears in Watchmaker's Hill

Options:

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Patrol the river's edge until you see it - then shoot!
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Try to determine where it will strike next - and lay out poisoned bait there
  •  Spoiler 
    Vial.png

     

    Challenge information

    Broad, Watchful 12 || 9 - very chancy (45%) || 11 - chancy (55%) || 13 - modest (65%) || 15 - very modest (75%) || 17 - low-risk (85%) || 19 - straightforward (95%) || 20 - straightforward (100%)

    Success

    You've worked out a relationship between its attacks and the tides

    Failure

    Its attacks seem random...

    ^
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The rat is badly hurt!