User:Elderfleur/vyechnoman

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Introduction[edit]

Past a certain point Card Draw will become the limiting factor. This will require an estimate, a range (probable), and the cost of amelioration (14 actions / missed draw?).

  • Pails become available some time between December 5th and 9th, and unavailable January 29th (51-55 days)
  • Noman's Progress Card is available as long as you have a Noman, but your pails will melt the first TTH after January 29th, which provides a melt date of January 29 - February 5th, or 25-31 days maximum.
  • Your Noman will cost between 4-15 Taste of Lacre. This should have minimal impact on your pails required, as the "free" lacre and pails from Advent and the 12 Days can comfortably get you to 10, and as we'll find out we won't be waiting longer than January 13th: we need as much time with our Noman as we can to fill it with lacre.
  • Based on a slightly efficient deck, we expect the Urchin Card every 41st Draw and the Noman Card every 9th Draw. At some point we'll explore the effects of grinding that down even farther.

Whitsunoman[edit]

Categorically achievable (with minor planning and a complete disregard for echoes), but a useful base case. Traditionally the second Monday of May (noonish) everything becomes available.

The Least Lucky Noman[edit]

  • Consider a player with TTH early Monday, before an event usually rolls out. The last minute-purchase is Monday, January 23rd after TTH hits which has a projected loss of 2218 - 2747 NF across 16 weeks. Pails of lacre are cheaper than Tears, so our "thrifty" price-tag is 236-295 pails. The price tag is immense, but we knew that going in: 29,500 - 36,875 Echoes worth of Nightwhispers and Storm-Threnodies.
  • We'd need to draw the Urchin Card 4.3 - 5.4 times per day, and once we have a Noman we'll need to draw Noman's Progress 16.85 - 21.07 times per day. The Urchins can be forced, the Noman cannot. This demands we draw 186 - 232 Cards per day; nonsense, of course.
  • This leaves us 2 options: Either we buy the Noman earlier, or we cash in Noman's Friend less efficiently
  • Lets try plan B, and because we're already being inefficient with money let's pour some Tears over our problem. These can be slowly stockpiled with a Presumptuous Opportunity, or the weeks they show up in the Rat Market.
    • Plan B: gawk at 2 Pails to get 6 lacre, then Tears to get 10 (occasionally 11) before cashing in with our Noman Card. Averaging out, a Tear gets us 6 lacre and so the ratio is 6 Pails to 2 Tears for (6*9)+(2*18)=90 Noman's Friend across 3 turn-ins.
    • 2218 - 2747 NF will costs us (142 Pails and 47 Tears) - (177 Pails and 59 Tears), and ask us to draw Noman's Progress 10.14 - 12.64 times per day, so that we draw 112 - 139 Cards per day. Technically possible, but unpleasant and relying on random chance to an alarming degree!
  • Hmm, What about plan A? What does, say, 1 week get us? We'll purchase it on the 16th, and it'll cost us an extra 34 - 67 Noman's friend, or an extra 4-8 buckets (about 0.5-1 extra Urchin visit per week). This tiny extra cost (2-3% extra) doubles our Noman's Progress time, though: with the original "oops, all pails" method we need to draw the Card 8.57-10.82 times per day, requiring on average 95 - 119 daily Card Draws.
  • "What if I hate drawing Cards?" What about one more week? Well, that costs us 22 - 55 extra NF, or an extra 3-6 buckets, but lets us draw the Noman's Progress as infrequently as 5.76 - 7.33 times a day, or 64 - 81 daily Draws. Such luxury! And if we add Tears? And if we buy it right on the 5th? Well, now the strategy's coming together!
  • As can be seen, "more time" has very little cost at this scale and can make our ventures far more leisurely (or in extreme examples, make them possible at all).
  • With dates beyond Whitsun, we'll be relying on both plan A and B: we'll want the earliest Noman we can, and we may even resort to using pails to grind up to 15 lacre for turn-ins.

Optimal numbers for different TTH days[edit]

  • coming at some point

Card Draw[edit]

A Summary of Cards in my London Deck:[edit]

  • 39 Standard 100%
  • 1 Infrequent 80%
  • 8 Very Infrequent 50%
  • 5 Unusual 20%
  • 1 Rare 10%

Estimate[edit]

A crass calculation (not quite how Card probability work) puts the odds of an Urchin draw with 4 kept in hand at 10/(35*10+1*8+8*5+5*2+1*1):

  • About 2% 2.44%
  • ~18.3% ~21.9% at least once in 10
  • About every 50th 41st Draw

A similar calculation puts Noman's progress at 50/(50+409):

  • About 9.09% 10.9%
  • ~61.4% 68.4% at least once in 10
  • About every 9th Draw

Considerations Possible But Not Taken[edit]

  • Fate resets to get certain stories in unfinished states
  • Destroying renown
  • Recreating a character to avoid certain unremoveable possessions

Specific Deck Contents[edit]

Standard[edit]

Infrequent 80%[edit]

Very Infrequent 50%[edit]

Unusual 20%[edit]

Rare 10%[edit]

Since Removed[edit]

Woeselled[edit]


A Non-exhaustive List of Conditions to maintain:[edit]

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