Use the Goat's... unique talents

ID: 9602

Spoiler warning! This page contains details about Fallen London Actions.

From: All fear the Overgoat!

Action Cost: 8

Faced with the Overgoat, few secrets can remain hidden. Send it to delve into the deepest heart of the Bazaar.

Game Instructions: This will take eight actions, but the reward will be commensurate.

Unlocked with Caprine Authority:

Challenge information

Broad, Watchful 300

• 205 - very chancy (41%)
• 255 - chancy (51%)
• 305 - modest (61%)
• 355 - very modest (71%)
• 405 - low-risk (81%)
• 455 - straightforward (91%)
• 500 - straightforward (100%)
  

Success

The Goat returns

[...] Best leave it alone tonight, with extra hay. Still, it brings with it a secret torn from the skin of the Bazaar itself, a wild and terrible song of mourning for a lost love; and a certain piece of eldritch paperwork. [...]

• Watchful is increasing…
•  You've gained 1 x Storm-Threnody
•  You've gained 1 x Bazaar Permit

Failure

The Overgoat is displeased

It attempted to climb the spires of the Bazaar, but other eyes were watching, and it could not attain the heights it wished. It brings you a lesser secret than the one it was aiming for, a mere shriek of a curse.

• Watchful is increasing…
•  You've gained 1 x Aeolian Scream

Revenue Analysis

The following assumes that the player is using a Sudden Insight to bolster chances of success, as this will always be more efficient than not using one given the difficulty of the challenge.

End-game players may be expected to have a Watchful of 267 to 345, depending on their Destiny, Profession, Ambition, Übergoat ownership, and whether they have overcapped their Watchful. Including the Second Chance re-roll, this means the chances of success range from 77.9% (for a raw 53% chance to succeed) to 90.4% (for a 69% chance). The expected profits from success accordingly range between 19.48 and 22.6 E. On failure, players receive 2.5E, and the expected profit from failure ranges between .55 E and .24 E. Thus, the overall profit for this action is 20.03 to 22.84 E. If the player holds onto their Storm-Threnodies to sell them at the Rat Market (available three weeks out of every twelve), overall profit increases to 25.87 E to 29.62 E, at the cost of an additional action.

To calculate EPA, the action to obtain the Second Chance must also be considered, and not simply the 8 action cost of this option. The most efficient methods of obtaining second chances are Give a Gift! and the Church/Great Game conflict card, both of which give 1 of each Advantage. If players have access to the Cave of the Nadir, they may use the leftover Advantages to a profitable end; if they do not (for example because they have overcapped stats and wish to preserve them), the other Advantages are not useful. Thus, the cost of a Sudden Insight may be either 1/4 of an action or 1 full action.

Accordingly, players with access to the Nadir and Rat Market have an overall EPA expectation of 2.79 to 3.20; players who do not, who must count obtaining the Insight as a full separate action and sell the Storm-Threnody for its normal price, have an overall EPA of 2.23 to 2.54. In either case, this is lower EPA than Learn of the Overgoat, on the same card.